(908) 955-0590

facebook
  • About
  • Blog/News
  • Customer Experience
  • About SRECs
    • Frequently Asked Questions
  • REC Markets
    • CT REC Program
    • MA REC Program
    • ME REC Program
    • NH REC Program
    • RI REC Program
    • VT REC Program
  • SREC Markets
    • MA SREC Program
    • MD SREC Program
    • NJ SREC Program
    • OH SREC Program
    • PA SREC / AEC Program
  • MA CPECs
    • What is a CPEC?
    • FAQs about CPECs
  • Installers
    • Overview
    • Knollwood Energy Installers
    • Solar Maintenance Providers
  • Contact

Blog / News Post

Comment are off

NJ SRECs – Trouble after the Legislation

14 Sep 2012
Knollwood Energy

We get asked all the time why the price of SRECs has dropped so much after the legislative “fix” signed by Governor Christie.  While we believe that the fix will keep NJ from seeing prices go down to the PA price range ($25), the issue of current and future oversupply is still an issue for SREC pricing.

The legislation increased the demand for NJ 2014 SRECs (starting June, 2013) from about 770,000 to over 1,600,000 SRECs.   This is an increase of OVER 100%, so why have prices dropped since the legislation was signed?  The simple reason is current oversupply and expected new supply.

As of August 31, 2012 NJ has installed about 876 MW of solar and the state is still installing over 20 MW/month.   At that rate, we will create about 1,100,00 SRECs for the 2013 SREC year.   That is about 525,000 more SRECs than required.  In 2012, we had an excess of about 257,000 SRECs.  So, combined we will have about 782,000 excess SRECs heading into the 2014 SREC year.

The table below goes over a few scenarios.  The charts assume build rates effective September 2012.  At an average build of 15 MW/month, we won’t get into balance until the 2015 SREC year and would be short in 2016 based on that build rate.   A build rate of 20 MW/month, would keep us long all the way through the 2016 SREC year.

If we drop immediately to 10MW/month, the market will be short in 2015 and we would see prices move up if we start seeing that build rate.  As long as installations are in the 20 MW range, prices will stay under pressure.

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

SREC Demand

442,000

596,000

1,640,000

1,960,000

2,200,000

SREC Supply
20MW/month

699,000

1,119,600

1,407,600

1,695,600

1,983,600

Excess SRECs

257,000

523,600

-232,400

-264,400

-216,400

Total Excess SRECs

257,000

780,600

548,200

283,800

67,400

15MW/month

699,000

1,108,400

1,319,400

1,535,400

1,751,400

Excess SRECs

257,000

512,400

-320,600

-424,600

-448,600

Total Excess SRECs

257,000

769,400

448,800

24,200

-424,400

10MW/month

699,000

1,087,200

1,231,200

1,375,200

1,519,200

Excess SRECs

257,000

491,200

-408,800

-584,800

-680,800

Total Excess SRECs

257,000

748,200

339,400

-245,400

-926,200

Assumes build rate starts Sep. 2012

Negative numbers = short market

 

About the Author
Knollwood Energy is focused on the renewable energy markets. Our goal is the expansion of renewable energy across the United States. Our many years of expertise in trading and finance will help all of our clients in either the compliance or voluntary markets.

Social Share

  • google-share

Recent News

10 May 2024

Massachusetts EV Community Events for October

25 Sep 2022

SREC Systems and 3G Phase Out

21 Feb 2022

State Programs

  • MA SREC Program
  • MA REC Program
  • MD SREC Program
  • ME REC Program
  • NH REC Program
  • NJ SREC Program
  • OH SREC Program
  • PA SREC / AEC Program
  • VT REC Program

Knollwood Energy

Address

P.O. Box 30
Chester, NJ 07930

P: (908) 955-0590
E: info@knollwoodenergy.com

Recent Posts

10 May 2024

Massachusetts EV Community Events for October

25 Sep 2022

State SREC Markets

  • MA REC Program
  • ME REC Program
  • NH REC Program
  • VT REC Program
  • MA SREC Program
  • MD SREC Program
  • NJ SREC Program
  • OH SREC Program
  • PA SREC / AEC Program
© 2020 Knollwood Energy. All Rights Reserved. Tweaked by I Heart Blank, LLC

Testimonial Details