New Jersey solar installations hit a record in the month of January, with about 85MW getting installed in the month. The reason for the tremendous bulge is due to the timing of the end of the Treasury 1603 tax grant. This brings total installed capacity to about 650MW. As can be seen from the table below, this is about as much solar as is needed for the 2014 SREC year, which begins June 1, 2013.
We would expect the rate of installation to drop dramatically from the January level, but the 1603 impact should be impacting installations throughout the 2012 calendar year. We are estimating install rates to average 20MW/month for the period between now and the end of the 2013 SREC year, or May of 2013.
With these estimates, we expect to see depressed SREC prices in New Jersey for the foreseeable future unless there are either legislative or BPU changes to increase demand.
SREC RPS installation Projected Excess
Year requirements (MW) installation (MW)* installation (MW)
2012 368 500 132
2013 497 730 233
2014 643 970 327
2015 804 1,090 286
2016 958 1,210 252
2017 1,131 1,330 199
2018 1,326 1,450 124
2019 1,548 1,570 22
2020 1,803 1,690 -113
*Assumes 20MW/month thru May 2013, then 10MW/month thereafter
Also, this does not include the cumulative impact of banked SRECs, which would increase the number of years until the market is in balance.